Friday, May 4, 2007

Vote 2007 - The Aftermath

So the headlines are:

Labour: Not as thrashed as expected.

Conservatives: Not as successful as expected, but decent gains.

Lib Dems: Not able to make any progress, disappointing losses and high level gains.

Scotland: Got cold feet and hasn't totally embraced the SNP.

Wales: Moderate push against Labour.

All a bit dull to be honest, those are a precis of the headlines that have been scrolling across News 24 etc. In reality of course things aren't that simple.

Labour HAVE had an awkward election, if it were a general it would have been a '92. They have been under attack on all sides, and although they weathered it, they are still at a comically low base.

The Conservative story is pretty fair as far as I can see. They are STILL incapable of gaining support in proper urban areas. The LibDems are taking the voters who might be natural tory supporters. (Successful yuppie types in Manchester for instance). The woman on TV last night seemed to think that taking the sub-urbs was some kind of first step to storming the inner city. But leafy sub-urbs are natural tory ground, they should be able to assume those kinds of seats. And this isn't a military coup, David Cameron isn't holding his troops in leafy Trafford ready to storm such deprived naturally untory inner city slums as Didsbury...

The Lib Dems, on the face of it, have disappointed. A few councils have fallen, and Gordon is a humiliating loss, which can't help them when they have to bargain around the Scottish parliament. The official line appears to be that 2003 (when these seats were last up) was a high water mark, and they have done well to hold steady. The good news is that they have taken control of a handful of councils, and as I write are (just) in a net gain.

Scotland has been as close as it was always going to be, a combination of a very negative labour campaign, and some very negative headlines, seemed to have scared a lot of votes back to labour. On the other hand: The swing to the SNP has been pretty impressive, and again I have to mention Gordon, a reminder that Salmond is pretty popular personally.

Wales is the place that has given Labour the biggest thumbs down, by my count the seats are tied between Labour and The Rest on 26 each. the news has been making a major fuss about Nye Bevan, and Neil Kinnock.

Manchester has seen a modest Lib-Dem advance, last I heard Bradford is looking alright as well. I'll not be troubling the Jewel of the North with my maiden speech as councillor any time soon though.

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